Supply remains elevated, demand is softening, and pricing is stabilizing near bottom ranges — signaling extended buyer leverage and a prolonged recovery arc, not a short-term rebound.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for October 28, 2025.
The Austin real estate market continues to recalibrate as October closes, reflecting a market that has yet to regain its balance after two years of correction. With 16,237 active listings, inventory is 14.5% higher than last year and roughly 1,900 units below the June peak, a sign that while supply has eased slightly from mid-year highs, it remains well above historic averages. Nearly 59.4% of listings have experienced at least one price reduction, underscoring a continued environment where buyers maintain strong negotiating leverage.
Active Listings and Price Dynamics
Compared to the same period in 2024, Austin’s active listings climbed from 14,176 to 16,237. This expansion in supply comes despite modest growth in new listings, which are up 4.4% year-over-year and stand 22.6% above long-term norms. The surge in inventory is no longer being driven by new sellers entering the market—it’s the slowdown in absorption that’s keeping properties on the market longer. Homes are now taking an average of nearly six months to clear, a notable shift from the brisk pace of 2021–2022 when homes often sold in weeks.
The concentration of price adjustments across the region paints a similar picture. Cities like Georgetown (66.5% of listings with price drops), Liberty Hill (66.7%), and San Marcos (70.7%) are showing the steepest corrections, while more central areas like Austin (57%) and Dripping Springs (51.8%) remain somewhat more stable. Collectively, these figures confirm a regional rebalancing rather than a sudden collapse—demand hasn’t disappeared, but it’s spread thin across a growing pool of options.
Pending Activity and Demand Pressure
Pending listings total 3,973, down 4.4% year-over-year, with cumulative pendings for 2025 at 37,325, a 2.8% annual decline. The Activity Index, which measures demand as a share of total supply, now sits at 19.7%, down from 22.7% last year—a 13.3% drop that pushes the market deeper into contraction territory.
This index is particularly revealing when segmented. New construction remains more active at 27.2%, while resale properties lag at 16.7%. Builders have been more aggressive with incentives and pricing, sustaining modest traffic, while existing homeowners—facing higher interest rate lock-in—remain reluctant to adjust pricing aggressively. Out of 75 tracked ZIP codes, 25 are in contraction (15–20% activity) and 26 are in crisis (<15%), marking one of the most unbalanced distributions in recent years.
New Listings to Pending Ratio and Market Turnover
The monthly new listing-to-pending ratio stands at 0.70, consistent with recent months and below the 25-year average of 0.82. This metric indicates that for every new listing entering the market, less than one property is going under contract—a clear indicator of a demand slowdown. Year-to-date, Austin has recorded 44,584 new listings and 37,325 pending sales, leaving a gap of 7,259 homes that remain unsold. This accumulation of excess supply continues to weigh on prices and reinforces the transition to a buyer-led market.
Inventory Expansion and Market Phases
The months of inventory (MOI) metric increased from 5.05 months in 2024 to 5.76 months today, a 14.2% rise. Within Austin’s five-phase inventory model, this places the broader market squarely in the neutral-to-buyer zone, with local variations ranging from seller-leaning areas (3–4 months) to deep buyer-control zones (>9 months).
Notably, Austin proper sits at 5.37 months, Georgetown at 5.01, and Leander at 5.34, each suggesting balanced-to-buyer-advantage conditions. Meanwhile, Lago Vista (8.2 MOI), Marble Falls (7.5), and Liberty Hill (6.0) have tipped into extended buyer control, where homes can sit unsold for up to 9 months or longer.
At the other end of the spectrum, micro-markets like Manchaca (2.4 months) and Cedar Park (3.2) still show rapid turnover, though these are exceptions rather than trends. On average, Austin’s housing supply remains 23% higher year-to-date compared to early 2025, confirming that supply-side relief will not come quickly.
Home Prices and Market Correction
The median sold price has stabilized at $435,000, representing a 20.9% decline from the May 2022 peak of $550,000. The average sold price sits at $591,655, about 13.2% below its peak. Despite these corrections, values have held relatively steady over the past six months, suggesting that Austin may have reached its pricing floor.
When compared to 36 months prior, median prices are down 7.45%, which aligns with the long-term cycle correction seen in past downturns (e.g., 2008–2011). Using Austin’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate of 4.838%, analysts project it would take 63 months—until December 2030—to return to the 2022 peak price level of $551,000 if steady appreciation resumes. This indicates a drawn-out recovery rather than a quick rebound, especially given the broader economic drag from elevated mortgage rates and cooling migration inflows.
Market Efficiency and Flow
The Absorption Rate, currently 11.77%, remains far below the historical average of 31.68%, highlighting sluggish turnover and sustained buyer leverage. In tandem, the Market Flow Score (MFS)—a proprietary measure of overall efficiency—stands at 2.47, less than half its long-term average of 6.58. These two indicators together reveal a market where homes linger, showings are slower to convert, and price elasticity has widened.
For buyers, this means more time to negotiate and inspect. For sellers, it underscores the importance of accurate pricing and presentation. For agents, it’s a reminder that we are in a market of process, not speed—a return to fundamentals where data, communication, and pricing discipline determine outcomes.
High-End vs. Entry-Level Divergence
The upper quartile of the market has remained surprisingly resilient. The top 25th percentile shows a 5.7% gain in median price year-over-year, while the bottom quartile declined 3.2%. This split continues to reflect the influence of cash-heavy and relocation-driven purchases at the top end, contrasted with affordability pressure in entry-level segments where financing costs remain prohibitive.
This “two-tier market” dynamic is likely to persist into early 2026, with the mid-range likely to see mild downward adjustments while luxury properties stabilize first due to limited competition.
Outlook and Forecast
As of late October, Austin’s housing market remains in an extended state of contraction. The Activity Index of 19.7% confirms low absorption, and inventory growth above 5.7 months supports a slow-moving buyer’s market. Prices appear to be finding their footing, but appreciation pressure is unlikely to return until at least mid-2026.
For investors, this represents an opportunity to accumulate quality properties at below-peak values. For homeowners, patience is key—stabilization precedes recovery. For buyers, conditions remain favorable, but due diligence and long-term perspective are crucial as the market searches for equilibrium.
