Understanding the Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®)
The Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®) provides a precise, month-by-month view of U.S. home price trends by tracking repeat sales of the same properties, making it more reliable than simple averages or median price metrics. Updated through August 2025 and released on September 30, this index shows that home prices nationally remain about 28% above pre-2020 levels, even as many metro areas have experienced meaningful pullbacks from their peaks.
Understanding the Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®) and Its Impact on the Austin Housing Market – August 2025 Update
Scroll down to view the full Freddie Mac House Price Index report for August 2025.
The Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®) remains one of the most reliable and widely used benchmarks for tracking residential real estate price trends across the United States. Updated monthly, the index reflects changes in single-family home values based on conventional, conforming mortgage transactions purchased or securitized by Freddie Mac. Because it is built on verified mortgage data rather than listing activity or atypical financing, FMHPI provides a clear, consistent, and unbiased view of price performance that helps analysts, policymakers, and real estate professionals assess long-term market stability and affordability.
Unlike MLS datasets, which can be influenced by off-market activity, seller concessions, or inconsistent reporting, FMHPI delivers a uniform baseline for evaluating home prices at national, state, and metro levels. It captures cumulative appreciation from baseline dates such as January 2020 or January 2021, as well as month-to-month and year-over-year changes. This layered perspective allows us to see both near-term adjustments and the bigger historical picture.
Austin’s Position in August 2025
The latest FMHPI release, posted on September 30, 2025, covers data through August 2025. Austin continues to lead all major U.S. metros in post-peak declines, with prices now 16.5% below the May 2022 peak. Out of 389 tracked U.S. cities, Austin remains near the very bottom in peak-to-current performance, underscoring the depth of the local correction since the pandemic boom. By comparison, the national average drop from peak pricing is only -1.8%, showing just how sharply Austin has diverged from the broader market.
On a year-over-year basis, Austin prices are still in negative territory at -2.8%, while the national average sits firmly positive at +5.1%. Month-to-month, August 2025 marked another small decline of -0.8%, opposite the national average monthly gain of +1.15%. These figures confirm that Austin is not only lagging the recovery but is still actively trending lower while most metros continue climbing higher.
Longer-Term Perspective
Even with the correction, Austin’s housing values remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic baselines. Since January 2020, prices are still 38.8% higher, and since January 2021 they are 16.7% higher. These figures highlight the extraordinary run-up from 2020 to 2022, when Austin values surged more than 70% before peaking. That surge was fueled by remote work migration, tech-sector growth, and inflows from higher-cost markets. Once mortgage rates reset higher and supply constraints eased, a correction became inevitable.
The challenge is that other major metros are now not only stabilized but setting new highs. Markets such as Chicago (+6.7% YoY), New York (+4.7% YoY), and Milwaukee (+6.2% YoY) are all advancing into record territory in 2025, while Austin continues to decline. This divergence illustrates how localized housing cycles have become, with Austin remaining one of only a few large metros where values have not yet found a floor.
Implications for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, the FMHPI data underscores that Austin offers one of the broadest “discount windows” in the country relative to peak pricing. With values nearly 17% below 2022 highs, affordability has improved compared to the pandemic surge, even if higher mortgage rates continue to strain purchasing power. Negotiability is also stronger here than in markets where multiple offers and rapid appreciation have returned.
For sellers, the message is equally clear: expectations must reset. Anchoring to May 2022 values is no longer viable, and holding out for a quick rebound risks extended time on market. The gap between Austin’s ongoing declines and the national average gains shows that sellers here are working against stronger headwinds than most of the country. Strategic pricing that reflects today’s buyer pool and inventory environment is essential.
Looking Ahead
FMHPI is not a predictive forecast, but it is a vital benchmark for understanding market position. Paired with local MLS indicators such as active inventory, absorption rates, and contract activity, it provides a comprehensive view of housing health. In August 2025, Austin’s housing market remains one of the most corrected in the nation, with year-over-year and month-over-month losses that set it apart from other large metros.
In the bigger picture, Austin’s long-term fundamentals—job growth, migration appeal, and economic diversity—remain intact. Once affordability improves and buyers adjust to the current rate environment, stabilization is likely. But for now, the data is clear: Austin sits at the bottom of the national leaderboard in price performance. That weakness, however, creates opportunity for buyers positioned to step into the market at valuations meaningfully discounted from the peak.
Contact us :
Please fill out the form below and one of our qualified agents will be in contact to help you get started on your home search.
