Austin Real Estate Weekly Market Update – October 02, 2025

by: Dan Price, Broker at Team Price Real Estate
Austin's leading data analysis brokerage, where data drives exceptional service
Published on: Thursday, October 02, 2025 at 11:29 am

The Austin housing market is entering October 2025 with higher inventory and softer pricing trends. Active listings across both the Austin-Area MLS and the City of Austin are up from last year, while Months of Inventory has climbed, signaling slower absorption and more negotiating room for buyers. Price growth is limited, with average values holding near flat and median prices slipping—most notably inside the city, where year-over-year declines are sharper. Overall, the market is leaning further toward a buyer-friendly environment, with expanding choices and competitive conditions shaping this fall season. 

Scroll down to access the full 850+ page Austin Real Estate Market Report, featuring in-depth statistics for the top 30 cities and 75 ZIP codes across the region. 

Inventory Growth and Market Balance

Active residential listings across the Austin-Area MLS reached 16,375 in early October 2025, a 13.8 percent increase from 14,392 one year ago. Compared to last week’s 16,839 listings, inventory has edged slightly lower, though the broader trend remains higher year over year. Months of Inventory has expanded from 5.28 to 5.81, a 10.1 percent gain. This shift underscores slower absorption, with homes taking longer to sell and buyers gaining more negotiating power.

Inside the City of Austin, the pattern is similar but less pronounced. Active listings rose 6.1 percent year over year, climbing from 4,643 in 2024 to 4,926 today. Months of Inventory increased from 5.52 to 5.80, a 5 percent rise. Week over week, inventory inside the city has been stable, suggesting that while supply has grown, the pace of new listings may be easing slightly. The bigger picture remains clear: buyers have more choices than they did last year, while sellers face more competition.

Pricing Stability Across the MLS

Pricing across the Austin-Area MLS has remained mostly flat over the past year, with only modest changes. The average list price for active homes is $572,088, up 0.8 percent from $567,803 in 2024. The median list price shows no change at all, holding steady at $425,000. On the sales side, the average sold price in the MLS is $549,289, a gain of just 0.6 percent year over year. The median sold price, however, slipped 1.4 percent, dropping from $417,000 to $411,150.

Compared to last week, these values have barely shifted, reinforcing the idea that while inventory has grown, prices are largely holding steady across the region. This combination of more supply and flat pricing suggests a balanced market—neither collapsing under price pressure nor surging upward as in previous boom years.

Pricing Trends in the City of Austin

Within the City of Austin, pricing shows sharper downward movement than the surrounding region. The average list price fell 2.6 percent year over year, from $788,151 to $767,464. The median list price dropped 4.1 percent, moving from $599,351 to $574,990. Closed sales followed the same direction. The average sold price decreased 2.4 percent, falling from $752,749 to $734,543. The median sold price fell even further, down 6 percent year over year from $585,000 to $550,000.

Week-over-week comparisons show that Austin’s pricing continues to slip modestly, especially at the median level, which reflects the typical homebuyer’s experience. For buyers, this translates into stronger leverage in negotiations, while for sellers, it highlights the importance of pricing realistically in order to compete in a crowded market.

Negotiation and Buyer Leverage

Negotiation continues to define the market across the Austin-Area MLS. So far in October, 69.24 percent of closed sales have transacted below list price, an increase from 65.94 percent last month. Another 18.39 percent of sales closed at asking, down from 21.88 percent in September, while 12.37 percent of homes closed above asking—nearly flat from last month’s 12.18 percent but still weaker than the 13.24 percent recorded in July 2024.

The average sold-to-list price ratio now stands at 96.67 percent, a clear sign that sellers are making concessions in most transactions. Buyers not only have more choices but are increasingly in control of the negotiation process.

Regional and ZIP Code Variations

Market conditions remain highly localized across Central Texas. Out of 30 tracked cities, 10 posted month-over-month price increases, while 19 recorded declines. Year over year, only 6 cities reported price gains, while 23 saw declines. None of the tracked cities are above their 12-month peak, underscoring the widespread nature of the correction.

At the ZIP code level, 26 of 75 tracked areas reported month-over-month gains, while 49 saw declines. Year over year, 23 ZIP codes showed increases, while 52 registered losses. Only one ZIP code across the region is above its 12-month peak, leaving 74 still below. This demonstrates how uneven the recovery remains, with some pockets stabilizing but most neighborhoods still trading below their highs.

Prices Relative to Peak Levels

When measured against recent peaks, prices remain well below their highs across the Austin-Area MLS. The average list price is down 12.7 percent from its March 2023 peak. The median list price is 16.6 percent below its May 2022 high. The average sold price has fallen 17.5 percent since May 2022, while the median sold price is down nearly 23.8 percent. On a price-per-square-foot basis, both average and median values remain more than 23 percent under their 2022 peaks.

Inside the City of Austin, the same story holds. The average sold price is 13.4 percent below its May 2022 peak, and the median sold price has fallen 18.9 percent. On a per-square-foot basis, values are down 25 to 28 percent from their highs. The only metric to set a recent peak was the city’s average list price, which reached $970,448 in September 2025—reflecting the presence of higher-end listings rather than broad market strength.

Market Outlook

As of October 2025, the Austin housing market is showing clear signs of balance. Inventory is up both year over year and compared to recent months, absorption has slowed, and most homes are closing under their original list prices. Across the Austin-Area MLS, pricing is essentially flat, while the City of Austin is experiencing more pronounced declines, especially at the median level.

For buyers, conditions are favorable: more listings to choose from, slower competition, and meaningful negotiating leverage. For sellers, success depends on setting competitive prices and staying flexible during negotiations. For investors, the environment offers opportunities for disciplined acquisitions at values that remain 15 to 25 percent below peak levels. The market is no longer defined by runaway appreciation but instead by balance, strategy, and positioning for long-term stability.​

Austin Housing Market FAQ – October 02 2025

1. What is the latest update on the Austin housing market?

As of October 02 2025, the Austin-Area MLS is showing elevated inventory alongside flat-to-soft pricing trends. Active listings have risen to 16,375, up 13.8 percent from 14,392 one year ago, and Months of Inventory has expanded from 5.28 to 5.81, a 10.1 percent increase. The average list price is $572,088, which is up 0.8 percent year over year, while the median list price is unchanged at $425,000. On the sales side, the average sold price is $549,289, a modest 0.6 percent gain, but the median sold price has slipped 1.4 percent to $411,150. Within the City of Austin, the numbers show even more pressure. Inventory has grown by 6.1 percent and Months of Inventory has increased to 5.80, while prices are clearly down. The average list price is off by 2.6 percent, the average sold price has fallen by 2.4 percent, and the median sold price has dropped sharply by 6 percent compared to last year.

2. Why are Austin home prices dropping?

Austin home prices are softening because the market is experiencing a significant rise in supply combined with slower absorption. Inventory in the Austin-Area MLS has grown by nearly 14 percent, and in the city by over 6 percent, meaning more homes are competing for a limited pool of buyers. Months of Inventory has also risen, showing that homes are taking longer to sell. This higher supply is giving buyers more choices and reducing the urgency that once pushed prices higher. Inside the city, affordability constraints and competition from suburban and new-build markets are intensifying the pressure. Sellers are also conceding more during negotiations, with the average sold-to-list price ratio now at 96.67 percent, a clear indicator that buyers are securing discounts. These dynamics together explain why values, particularly median prices in Austin proper, are heading lower.

3. What is the trend in Austin real estate in 2025?

The 2025 trend for Austin real estate is one of transition toward balance after several years of extreme seller-favored conditions. Rising inventory is outpacing buyer demand, pushing Months of Inventory higher and easing price momentum. Across the Austin-Area MLS, pricing is essentially flat, with average values holding steady and median prices down slightly. Inside the City of Austin, declines are sharper, especially at the median level, signaling affordability issues and less aggressive buyer activity. The overall market is not in freefall but is clearly adjusting, with buyers gaining negotiating leverage and sellers being forced to reset expectations. In short, the market is moving away from rapid appreciation toward a more measured, balanced environment.

4. Should I buy a house now or wait for a recession?

Whether to buy now or wait depends heavily on personal circumstances, but the data suggests there are reasons to consider purchasing today. Inventory is at its highest level in years, giving buyers more choice and leverage in negotiations, with most sales closing under list price. The Austin-Area MLS median sold price has already slipped 1.4 percent year over year, and in the City of Austin, the median has dropped 6 percent, meaning many buyers are securing better deals than they could a year ago. Waiting for a recession is uncertain, since economic conditions, interest rates, and supply trends can shift quickly, and higher mortgage rates could offset any future price declines. For buyers who are financially prepared and plan to hold long-term, today’s balanced market offers opportunities that did not exist during the height of the boom.

5. Is Austin’s housing boom over?

The explosive boom that defined the Austin housing market in recent years has cooled, and the data confirms that the period of double-digit appreciation is behind us. Inventory is significantly higher than a year ago, absorption has slowed, and median prices in the city have fallen by six percent. Across the broader MLS, pricing is mostly flat, while city values are clearly trending lower. This shift does not mean the market is collapsing, but it does show that Austin has moved into a new phase defined by balance rather than frenzy. The boom may be over, but what remains is a healthier, more sustainable market that favors buyers, challenges sellers, and provides investors with opportunities to acquire at levels that are 15 to 25 percent below peak.​